RENT
Rent the Runway, Inc. - Class A Common Stock - Recent news and sentiment analysis
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What does rent look like in your area? I agree shit is to high, but most of my friends who rent pay ...
What does rent look like in your area? I agree shit is to high, but most of my friends who rent pay more a month in rent for a lot less nice place.
Making money on options hits so much better when you gamble with rent and bill money
Making money on options hits so much better when you gamble with rent and bill money
That’s baked into rent though. Any house rental is like 1,000 more than the mortgage would be.
That’s baked into rent though. Any house rental is like 1,000 more than the mortgage would be.
So? Rent will always be higher than the mortgage.
So? Rent will always be higher than the mortgage.
The 50 year mortgage is not a bad idea, people just like to bitch about everything… No one is forc...
The 50 year mortgage is not a bad idea, people just like to bitch about everything… No one is forcing you to get a 50 year, people be acting like it’s mandatory In reality it will basically be like your renting the house and the bank is your landlord, as your rent will just be paying the interest every month, not ideal but not bad either
Better to rent
Ok, 681 makes me rent money.
Ok, 681 makes me rent money.
Why $RENT- when you can own the upside? AI, Cash Flows and the PE Pay Day
***#sundressSZN*** *- clear skies, warm vibes and turning heads.* *$RENT’s recap just cleared the storm, turnaround signs are heating up, and if retail shows up, $RENT will turn heads with a 4-10x payoff. Time to dress for the upside.* doubled position to 50,000 shares TL;DR recap: In my [last post ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1oq4p23/rent_pe_sharks_circle_the_runway_thin_float/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)I laid out $RENT (Rent the Runway, RTR) as a structural special situation post its Oct 2025 recap- debt slashed to $120M, PE trio (APS, STORY3, Nexus) grabbing \~86% control, thin 4.8M public float setting up a take-private force out. At \~$4/share ($130M cap, $250M EV), it's undervalued on \~$300M revenue and positive EBITDA, with \~4x upside if visibility forces PE to pay fair. Not a long-term bull bet on fashion rentals, but a play on incentives aligning for minorities to get a decent exit. TL;DR current: $RENT recap (Oct 2025) flipped RTR from debt-zombie to PE-controlled special sit. First post said $10–18 fair now; this one shows $25–40 by 2027 on successful execution hits (15–20% subs, 25% margins, FCF +$70M). Retail shows up → forces $15–18 buyout today (4x); stays loud → $25–40 if PE waits (6–10x). Visibility = leverage. #sundressSZN **Why Now Feels Different: The Timing Shift** $RENT's chart has been a bloodbath- down 99% from IPO highs, with past "buy" calls around 2023-2024 fizzling amid debt crises and execution slips. But the Oct 28 recapitalization changes everything: it's a de-risked setup with serious PE muscle. Pre-recap, \~$340M debt loomed with near-term maturities, fueling endless dilution and bankruptcy fears. Now, $223M converted to equity, maturity pushed to 2029, $20M fresh cash injected = balance sheet clean, ops stabilized. PE's \~86% stake (entered at $4-9/share) signals conviction from pros who've committed $240M+, stacking the board for control. Unlike prior years' retail-driven hype, this is PE-led: They won't flip short-term (craters value); they're here to rebuild and execute. Thin float amplifies any catalyst (e.g., Q3 earnings \~Dec 2025), making now the entry for an asymmetric structural play. **Scrutinizing the Original Valuation: EBITDA's Role and Highlighting FCF** The first post leaned on Adjusted EBITDA (\~$47M FY2024) and 10-14x EV/EBITDA multiples for the $10-18 fair value range, which captured the peer-aligned structural upside without overcomplicating. But let's acknowledge: EBITDA has shortcomings here- it adds back \~$65M in rental product depreciation, masking the asset-heavy reality of constantly refreshing gowns/inventory. This can overstate sustainable profits if CapEx (mostly apparel buys) outpaces cash generation, as seen in FY2024's -$7M FCF despite +$13M op cash. To refine the view, we'll keep EV/EBITDA as the primary lens (the multiple PE would use for a re-IPO or sale) while layering in FCF to stress-test cash sustainability. This means projecting EBITDA growth under successful execution, valuing at a conservative 12x EV/EBITDA, then showing how FCF ramps (e.g., $23M+ by 2026, $58M+ by 2027) to support the story- proving the cash engine is real (compelling upside-projections table below). **The Opportunity PE Sees: Ideal Turnaround Vision For PE** $RENT isn't a dying retailer- it's a scalable "Netflix of fashion" with proprietary AI tech (personalization, logistics) ripe for optimization. Ideally, PE takes private mid-2026 (post-90% ownership), invest in expansions (e.g., menswear/home via the platform), cut costs (Nexus expertise in scaling consumer ops without ballooning CapEx), and exit at $1B+ valuation in 3-5 years (25-30% IRR on $500-800M base, up to $1.5B+ with growth). Key: Asset-light shifts (brand partnerships) reduce CapEx risk, while AI unlocks efficiency- CEO Hyman calls it the "smarter closet," with recent upgrades boosting retention +8% in FY2024. **Unlocking Via Key Levers: Attainability, AI Ties, and Early Signs** PE unlocks this through attainable levers, showing healthy trajectories in 2024-2025 data, with AI as the enabler (not the sole bet, but tilting profitability via data-driven edges). Signs are emerging, peers validate feasibility: * **15-20% Subs Growth (150K to 250K+ by 2028)**: FY2024 ended \~137K (flatish YoY); FY2025 accelerating: Q1 +0.9% YoY, Q2 +13.4% to 146K record high. Guidance: Double-digit FY2025 (10%+). Attainable: Q2 momentum from inventory/marketing; AI personalization (recommendations) cuts churn <10%, as seen in +8% retention lift. Peers: Nuuly's 50%+ growth via similar AI logistics; Stitch Fix's 17% reactivations post-AI styling tools. * **5-10% ARPU Growth**: \~$2,000 annualized FY2024 (up from prior); Q2 uplift via engagement. No explicit guide, but resale/partnerships (20-25% revenue) imply lift. Attainable: AI upsell suggestions (e.g., premium plans); feasibility from Stitch Fix's ARPU gains via generative AI. * **20-25% EBITDA Margins (Logistics Cuts, Turns 5-11x to 12-15x)**: FY2024 15.3%; Q2 dipped to 4.4% (intentional invests), but Q3 guide -2% to +2%. Attainable: Scale dilutes costs; AI forecasting optimizes turns (less downtime), per Hyman's comments. Early signs: Utilization up in Q2. Peers: Stitch Fix nearing breakeven via AI trend prediction. * **Disciplined CapEx (10-15% of Rev, Resale Offsets 30-40%)**: FY2024 \~16% ($49M); YTD FY2025 \~26% (growth push), but guide near-FCF breakeven. Attainable: Asset-light (rev-share) reduces buys; AI targets high-ROI items. Signs: Resale offsets \~20-25% now; Nuuly's efficiency shows path. AI's impact: Hyman (Q2 call) highlights it for search/styling (Net Promoter Score +20 points), directly boosting subs/ARPU (recommendations), margins/turns (demand predict), CapEx (targeted buys). Signs materializing: Q2 growth post-upgrades; Stitch Fix's AI recovery (margins from losses to positive) highlights feasibility for RTR's similar model. **Bringing It Home: Projections, Share Price Upside, and PE Timing Trade-Offs** If execution nails these (15-20% growth, AI efficiencies), FCF flips positive, unlocking mid-term value. Successful execution projections (20% revenue CAGR, margins scale to 25%): [\*Low \(10x\): Adjusts per-share down \~17% \(e.g., 2026 \~$21\); High \(14x\): Up \~17% \(e.g., 2026 \~$29\). DYOR.](https://preview.redd.it/gafneaqium0g1.png?width=1564&format=png&auto=webp&s=11e0f77151cb954d453af7d909ca76fe153f812c) **Timing & Retail Upside: The Asymmetric Game** With 86% control, PE *could* force a take-under now at $6–8/share (cheap, locks in low value, \~2.5x IRR on quick flip). But if retail shows up early, building visibility, volume, and momentum, it forces PE’s hand to pay $15–18/share *now* (\~4x from $4) to avoid a messy re-rate and secure control cleanly. If PE waits to mid-2026/2027 (post-proof quarters), retail staying engaged could push fair value to $25–40/share as key levers hit (15–20% subs growth, AI-driven turns, FCF +$23M → +$58M). That’s 6–10x upside from today, but only if the float stays awake. Asymmetric: PE wins either way- but retail controls the price. Visibility = leverage. Watch Q3 \~Dec 2025 for cash clues. DYOR, not advice. **Final thoughts:** This opportunity still requires execution, but it is not a retail Hail Mary . There's real PE muscle in the driver's seat. $20M fresh cash, 86% ownership, and a thin float that amplifies momentum. You have alignment, capital, and control that didn’t exist in 2023 or 2024. Path forward is visible. Retail forces a pay day. As they say: I like the stock.
How about lifetime mortgages and we call the payment Regular Equity Non Transferable (RENT)
How about lifetime mortgages and we call the payment Regular Equity Non Transferable (RENT)
I could buy like 3 or 4 cheap houses with 50 year mortgages and rent em out for easy profit, flip on...
I could buy like 3 or 4 cheap houses with 50 year mortgages and rent em out for easy profit, flip on the housing run and double down on 8 houses. Now my returns are so high i can can add another house every month. After 2 years i run an entire subberb. But why stop there? 48 years left. Before ive even paid off the first house i have another 100-200 added. When i die young becouse i smoke a lot, am i really gonna give a shit?
It’s funny because if you get one at 21, 71 puts you over the life expectancy of southern males So ...
It’s funny because if you get one at 21, 71 puts you over the life expectancy of southern males So if you stay in one house your whole life, it’s effectively rent control
Why rent from a landlord until you die when you can rent from the bank for eternity?
Why rent from a landlord until you die when you can rent from the bank for eternity?
Just started a new company, Corebius Unlimited LLC. I will be offering my new rig with TWO brand new...
Just started a new company, Corebius Unlimited LLC. I will be offering my new rig with TWO brand new RTX-5090s with liquid cooling for rent to any interested hyperscalers. Bids accepted through end of month.
# holyyy shit my rent seeking leveraged data center AI company is operating at a loss and only tradi...
# holyyy shit my rent seeking leveraged data center AI company is operating at a loss and only trading at 10x p/s time to go all in baby
50 yr mortgage actually makes sense. If you paid off a house today bought 50 years ago the monthly p...
50 yr mortgage actually makes sense. If you paid off a house today bought 50 years ago the monthly payments have depreciated by 85% due to inflation. Compared to rent prices for the last 50 years which have increased by 1000%. Not to mention you get to keep the equity and increase in home value.
He really lives rent free in you retards' heads. He's in there kicking around with two guys playing...
He really lives rent free in you retards' heads. He's in there kicking around with two guys playing "tummy sticks" and various questions about why, oh why, is cousin fucking illegal.
They’ve been spineless for years. That’s why people like memdami and sanders…not bc of rent freeze b...
They’ve been spineless for years. That’s why people like memdami and sanders…not bc of rent freeze but bc they have spines
Burry living rent free in retard spastic bull heads. He has the room next to two hobos fucking and d...
Burry living rent free in retard spastic bull heads. He has the room next to two hobos fucking and down the hall from "step" sister porn.
Lmao so we’re just gonna get all bullish again like the economy isn’t literally falling apart? the l...
Lmao so we’re just gonna get all bullish again like the economy isn’t literally falling apart? the labor markets bleeding out layoffs stacking up, people can’t find work, and tge only ones hiring are temp gigs paying 2019 wages. Inflation’s still cooking everything, groceries up, gas up, rent up, but sure “soft landing” right? JPOW already said no more rate cuts this year, so enjoy your 8% credit card debt while the housing market burns. You can’t buy, can’t build, can’t even rent without selling an organ. Everything’s way too expensive and nobody wants to admit it but hey, stocks green with government back open so I guess we’re good
Burry living rent free in your mind
Burry living rent free in your mind
Just do an interest only 50 year mortgage. Basically rent that doesn’t go up. (Besides property taxe...
Just do an interest only 50 year mortgage. Basically rent that doesn’t go up. (Besides property taxes)
rent > buy if you're not a family but yea u need a good landlord
rent > buy if you're not a family but yea u need a good landlord
2,000 dollars is like burleh even rent
2,000 dollars is like burleh even rent
They're closing like 400 Wendy's and I'm not sure how I'll be able to pay my rent soon.
They're closing like 400 Wendy's and I'm not sure how I'll be able to pay my rent soon.
I can’t wait for the stimulus check. It’ll pay for a month of rent in my 425 sq ft apartment.
I can’t wait for the stimulus check. It’ll pay for a month of rent in my 425 sq ft apartment.
FOREVER RENT GANG CHECKING IN 💪💪
FOREVER RENT GANG CHECKING IN 💪💪
50 year mortgage is like tax deductible rent.
50 year mortgage is like tax deductible rent.
Need to turn $128 into $650,000 by Friday for rent
Need to turn $128 into $650,000 by Friday for rent
If I was poor I would rather have a 50-year mortgage than rent, fuck that
If I was poor I would rather have a 50-year mortgage than rent, fuck that
We talking mortgages? Where my Rent Gang at 😒
We talking mortgages? Where my Rent Gang at 😒
I'm pretty sure a 50 year mortgage is just rent
I'm pretty sure a 50 year mortgage is just rent
"There's another word for a 50-year mortgage. Rent"
"There's another word for a 50-year mortgage. Rent"
What about the 1 week rental, 4 payments per month, rent now pay earlier
What about the 1 week rental, 4 payments per month, rent now pay earlier
The only solution I've found is to rent in a really old stone masonry building. Those block the nois...
The only solution I've found is to rent in a really old stone masonry building. Those block the noise really well. Otherwise it's fucking torture
Lost 5k, nearly broke. Got a date today, behind on rent. Might sell my car. At least my job is decen...
Lost 5k, nearly broke. Got a date today, behind on rent. Might sell my car. At least my job is decent. If i had won today my life would be straight but i did not and am in financial hell for a bit. Someone halp me feel better pls.
#I live rent free in some of your heads LMAO🤌
#I live rent free in some of your heads LMAO🤌
Funny enough the vibes are better here when people are losing rent checks vs when then markets up
Funny enough the vibes are better here when people are losing rent checks vs when then markets up
everyone’s expecting it to bounce so it will keep dumping 🤨 market is tapped out, and retail out of ...
everyone’s expecting it to bounce so it will keep dumping 🤨 market is tapped out, and retail out of $ feds selling stock to pay rent
Ion think rent getting paid this month yall💔
Ion think rent getting paid this month yall💔
Don’t invest your rent money, nard
Don’t invest your rent money, nard
*"Be greedy when others are fearful"* said the man who has never feared going hungry or missing rent...
*"Be greedy when others are fearful"* said the man who has never feared going hungry or missing rent...
This is one issue with the AI thing. I mean, who is going to rent these buildings?
This is one issue with the AI thing. I mean, who is going to rent these buildings?
The “he didn’t use his turn signal” lady lives in my head rent free
The “he didn’t use his turn signal” lady lives in my head rent free
So Altman wants the government to rent out compute power or something? Imagine how dogshit that woul...
So Altman wants the government to rent out compute power or something? Imagine how dogshit that would be. If that happened they would start with a data center full of 1080Ti's completed in 2030. They wouldn't even have a web interface like ec2. You would have to send a letter to rent compute power.
She tryna to be a good mom. Went to college. But now she gotta skip meals so her kids don't starve...
She tryna to be a good mom. Went to college. But now she gotta skip meals so her kids don't starve and she only has $100 after rent, childcare, and utilities. Price of everything just won't stop going up. https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/politics/video/mother-snap-benefits-west-virginia-vrtc But we need to spend a trillion dollars to make Will Smith eating spaghetti AI and all that slop better wttttfffffff. This bubble is completely out of control and y'all have lost your damn minds.
I stay at my ex’s house and pay rent.
I stay at my ex’s house and pay rent.
If they can afford a house they either weren´t living at all or earned so ridiculously much that the...
If they can afford a house they either weren´t living at all or earned so ridiculously much that they could rent an apartment in Manhattan.
Sam Altman literally said they plan to sell some of that compute as well don't worry guys. So altma...
Sam Altman literally said they plan to sell some of that compute as well don't worry guys. So altman going to pay other companies to build compute, that he can rent and sell to other companies as well. I wish they had succeeded in firing him.
Wtf at rent a center you rent Michael Jordan's for 19 bucks a month.... imagine u miss a payment and...
Wtf at rent a center you rent Michael Jordan's for 19 bucks a month.... imagine u miss a payment and they have repo it...smh this fuking world is nuts
$RENT - PE Sharks Circle the Runway: Thin Float, Take-Private Setup, 4X Special Situation
In for $100k TL;DR: Rent the Runway ($RENT)(RTR), a subscription fashion rental firm recently de-risked after an Oct 2025 recap ($223 M swap, ~33 M shares, PE trio ~86%). Now $4 stock ripe for take-private. PE could lowball $6–8 above market- a steal! - yet fair value sits ~$15–18 (~4× upside) and barely dents their IRR. Market just needs to wake up and re-rate. This isn’t a long-term bullish thesis on RTR’s success- it’s a structural read. Ownership, recap terms, and incentives indicate a likely take-private situation; the focus is ensuring holders receive fair value. DYOR, not advice. ********************* Quick Biz Summary and RTR History: Rent the Runway (RTR), founded in 2009 by Jennifer Hyman (still CEO), lets women rent designer clothing through a subscription “closet in the cloud.” It went public in 2021 at $21/share, reaching a peak valuation above $1 billion before COVID aftershocks and mounting debt derailed growth. The company later pivoted to resale and brand rev-share partnerships with a sustainability angle. Revenue is about $300 million, profitability returned in 2024, and following the October 2025 recap, RTR now trades around a $130 million market cap (~$250 million enterprise value)- a fraction of its IPO-era value. What Just Happened- The Restructuring Bombshell: On October 28, 2025, Rent the Runway completed a major recapitalization led by private equity firm APS, its largest lender. The deal converted $223 million of debt into equity at $9.23 per share and added $20 million in new cash. Debt dropped to about $120 million, with maturity extended to 2029. The share count ballooned from roughly 4 million to 33.4 million, creating heavy dilution. The PE trio—APS, STORY3, and Nexus—now controls about 86% of the company (roughly 29 million shares). The board was restructured with their appointees, and ownership rights tied to control thresholds. That leaves just 4.8 million shares in the public float—financially de-risked but thinly traded, positioning it for a swift re-rate once visibility improves. What PE Players See- 2024 Wins, 2025 Investments, Growth Guidance: This isn’t about RTR’s long-term success, but about how PE values the setup. In 2024, the company finally pivoted to profitability- roughly $47 million in adjusted EBITDA (15% margin), $13 million in operating cash flow, and subscriptions up 13% year over year in Q2. The soft revenue and margin dips in early 2025 (about –7%) seem deliberate, tied to increased spending on inventory, brand partnerships, and marketing to re-accelerate growth. Subscriptions reached record highs (+1% YoY in Q1), with management guiding to 10%+ growth for the full year (!). From a PE lens, RTR now looks like a stabilized, cash-generating platform with minimal near-term credit risk- ideal conditions for a controlled take-private. Why This Screams Take-Private: With ~86% control, a thin float, and a cleaned-up balance sheet, this is a textbook private-equity setup for a take-private. Once the group crosses Delaware’s 90% ownership threshold, it can execute a short-form merger- no shareholder vote required. Minority holders are converted to cash at a price set by the board, with only limited “appraisal rights.” In practice, those challenges are rare and costly, meaning control effectively sets the price. Buying the remaining ~14% public float at an $8 lowball would cost about $39 million- pocket change. Even paying a fair $15–18 per share would cost roughly $73–87 million, still well within reach and only trimming a few points off a 25–30% IRR on a $500–600 million exit in three to five years. The structure and incentives align perfectly: private equity holds the cards, the balance sheet is de-risked, and the public float is small enough to take out quietly. The only variable is visibility—if the market stays asleep, retail gets cashed out cheap; if not, PE has to pay fair value. Valuation model check: RTR’s 2024 turnaround base case: ~$47 million in adjusted EBITDA on ~$300 million revenue, ~$120 million net debt post-recap, and ~33.4 million diluted shares outstanding. At a conservative 10–12× EV/EBITDA (roughly in line with profitable consumer-subscription peers) the equity screens at $10–14 per share. A modest re-rate to 13–14× for growth visibility and balance-sheet strength lands at $15–18 per share. That’s the range private equity would model for a clean take-private: full control, de-risked balance sheet, and still a 25–30% IRR on a $500–600 million re-IPO or sale. Paying fair here for the remaining 14% of float doesn’t hurt them it actually strengthens their exit story, giving them a higher private mark to re-IPO against. At take-private pricing: Exit Multiple | Enterprise Value Less Net Debt | Equity Value Per-Share 10× EBITDA | ~$470M–$120M=~$350M | ~$10/share 11× EBITDA | ~$520M–$120M=~$400M | ~$12/share 12× EBITDA | ~$564M–$120M=~$444M | ~$13–14/share 13× EBITDA | ~$610M–$120M=~$490M |~$15–16/share 14× EBITDA | ~$658M–$120M=~$538M |~$17–18/share What’s Attractive for Each PE Firm: APS (Aranda Principal Strategies)- Lead lender turned majority owner (~60% stake). Entered at $9.23/share via debt-to-equity conversion. Credit-focused, targeting a 1.1–1.6× return ($10–15/share exit) for a 15–25% IRR over 2–4 years. Likely to push a take-private, then sell its stake to STORY3/Nexus once control is secured. STORY3 Capital Partners- Consumer-focused investor (~13% stake), entered around $4.08/share. Sees brand and subscription revival potential, aiming for 3–6× upside ($15–26/share) and 25–40% IRR over a 4–7 year horizon. Positioned to buy APS’s stake and drive the eventual re-IPO or sale. Nexus Capital Management- Special-situations investor (~13% stake), also entered near $4.08/share. Targets 2.5–5× return ($10–22/share) and 20–35% IRR, focused on operational leverage and logistics optimization. Likely co-buyer of APS’s position alongside STORY3. Collectively, the trio has invested over $240 million, signaling long-term conviction. Offloading shares into the thin float would crater their own value and control, so they’re here for rebuild IRRs, not short-term flips. Even at $15–18 per share, STORY3 and Nexus gain little by selling- liquidity is limited, and exiting early would jeopardize their governance rights and 90% control path. Their real upside comes from taking RTR private, scaling it quietly, and re-listing later at a far higher valuation. Final thoughts: The setup here is simple: PE owns 86%, the balance sheet is clean, and the float is microscopic. The next logical move is a take-private once they cross Delaware’s 90% threshold. The math works either way: an $8 squeeze-out costs them pocket change, while paying fair value at $15–18 barely moves their IRR and strengthens their re-IPO optics later. Retail doesn’t need to bet on Rent the Runway’s long-term success to see the angle. This is a structure-driven opportunity: a thin-float, de-risked special situation where visibility alone can change the outcome. Don’t let PE Delaware-90% you out at $8 “premium” peanuts. A $15–18 fair-value buyout cost is immaterial (maybe a 1–2% IRR drag). Make them pay fair. Stop the steal. (PS- $15–18 is a reasonable premium for PE to own the upside cleanly. But with a float this thin, if sentiment turns or things get a little memey… well, it could make for quite a story #sundressSZN) ********************* Key references: https://investors.renttherunway.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rent-runway-announces-growth-recapitalization-and-strategy https://renttherunway.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rent-runway-announces-closing-recapitalization-transactions https://us.fashionnetwork.com/news/Rent-the-runway-to-swap-debt-for-equity-in-revival-effort,1757372.html https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468327/000095010325010546/dp233293_8k.htm