LUNR
Intuitive Machines, Inc. - Class A Common Stock - Recent news and sentiment analysis
Default charts cover the last 24 hours by "day" period and sentiment shares compare positive vs. negative mentions after removing neutral posts.
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LUNR Price & Sentiment Over Time
Sentiment series exclude neutral posts so the green/red balance matches the bar on the home page; price points use the latest available quote.
RKLB and ASTS have taken off while I am holding my NBIS, META, RDDT, GOOG, TSM calls. Best case sce...
RKLB and ASTS have taken off while I am holding my NBIS, META, RDDT, GOOG, TSM calls. Best case scenario, I will be rotating my insane profits I will be having \~ end of February to buy the RKLB, LUNR, ASTS dip. Realistically though, I am going to be -60% and buy $ROPE with what is left.
I don't mean to pick on LUNR, but why would anyone buy a company that's done nothing but litter the ...
I don't mean to pick on LUNR, but why would anyone buy a company that's done nothing but litter the moon with a glorified, and broken, mini fridge? LW takes quality potatoes, freezes them, and has them successfully land on tables around the world. If you truly want to moon, think spuds. Tendies, err, tots await 🥔 🚀
when LUNR gets the NASA contract it’ll fly to 25
when LUNR gets the NASA contract it’ll fly to 25
when LUNR gets the NASA contract it’ll fly to 25
when LUNR gets the NASA contract it’ll fly to 25
Couldn't take it anymore. Sold all my holdings that have been losing money, and threw it all into RK...
Couldn't take it anymore. Sold all my holdings that have been losing money, and threw it all into RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, NBIS, IREN, CRWV, and APLD. Learning to be more conservative with my risk management, so just an even 28.6% of my portfolio across each holding (fully margined on robinhood). Ready to see this bull run continue in 2026!
The premiums on LUNR are still dog shit
The premiums on LUNR are still dog shit
Lunr $17 EOD
Oh boy LUNR just hit stage 2
Oh boy LUNR just hit stage 2
LUNR breakout out of this choppiness oh boy
LUNR breakout out of this choppiness oh boy
Thanks LUNR for the 4K gains in the last 10 days right before Christmas 🌕🚀
Thanks LUNR for the 4K gains in the last 10 days right before Christmas 🌕🚀
A Pure Gambling Play: LUNR (800% gain so far)
I've explained it once, but badly - if I don't collect my thoughts well in advance it's hard to explain the reasoning behind certain plays. This post is the start of **my redemption ark (in terms of me being capable of explaining my thoughts)**, and so I will try to explain once more but more carefully why I decided to buy "LUNR tickets" when it was trading at $8\~ I've since then got an 800% gain on my options: [My position \(not including the new one I just made\)](https://preview.redd.it/a8h9skpl3t8g1.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=53289b9bed2aea9c59df7740495e6d49013bf256) # It started with a message from a WSB discord user I'll forever love this dude, he told me about LUNR and an LTV contract, briefly explained why LUNR is going to win the contract and that he has invested into them. My initial thoughts were the typical "yea right, buddy" thoughts: * How do I know you're a mechanical/space/whatever engineer that actually understands what is required by NASA? * How can you be so sure, that they are the ones to get picked? * Have you even checked their financials? [My brain when I realized what I realized](https://i.redd.it/0qam0x073t8g1.gif) But then my ADHD-crippled-monkey inside my brain took over: * Wait, did you say only three companies selected? * Final stage of the contest? * Previous collaborations with NASA? * Wait, you told me that there's a probability two companies might make the cut? * $4.7Bln contract? This is a typical 'gambling' game, and every gambling game can be analyzed, simulated and if you do it well enough you can get an edge. You see I used to play poker, and when you want to analyze a hand you do similar techniques that banks use to predict stock market prices. # Simple Gambling Math Note: To simplify the text and make it shorter, I'll denote probability as P(event). Imagine that you're playing a simple "roll the 3-sided dice" game. Each side has a probability of being rolled equal to 1/3. Now say you're betting $1 on your favorite number and if you win, you get $1.5 back. You could calculate the EV (expected value) of this game by simply calculating: P(win) \* amount(won) + P(loss) \* - amount(loss) = your EV (of discrete probability) so in our sample game we have: 1/3 \* $1.5 - 2/3 \* $1 \~= $-0,17 Roughly translated to human language -> In the long run, for every time you decided to play this game you effectively lost $0.17 If we can figure out how this "LTV contract game" is played and what are the individual probabilities then we can figure out if it makes sense to play this game or not. # Monte Carlo Simulations Now here's what I was thinking, there's a lot of information out there, publicly available. That allows me to guess what might get factored into this decision. So all I need to do is to "define a game" and the rules to play this game, run simulations of this game and then approximate the likely probability. Why do I need to do this? To be as independent as possible (and factor in different odds of a decision being made this way). **So this is the game:** You have 3 companies at the beginning and in the end (1 or with a certain probability 2 will be picked), you have a set of rules where each rule defines which company scores points with what probability (random events). At the start of the game you chose a number equal to the number of rules you'll randomly select from the original set. At the start of each simulation you will modify the base probability of a rule (/event) occurring (and you do so randomly). Run a lot of simulations -> assess conditional probabilities based on results, i.e.: **- P(LUNR win | IF 1 selected)** **- P(LUNR win | IF 2 selected)** Now of course it gets even better if you start factoring the odds of the market recovering, space age boom, etc. everything slightly improving your odds. # Results Even if the chances that 1 company would've been selected, the odds were stacked in your favor as long as you were buying deep OTM calls with long expiry (at the time I bought end of JAN 12.5C for roughly \~ 45c premium each). The reason for this is that the leverage increases your volatility, but as a result of that you can potentially lose everything you invested into it, standard shares would just fall to a certain price. However when factoring the possibility of 2 companies being selected the eventual probability of LUNR winning became slightly greater than 1/2... meaning that it just didn't make sense "not to play" - even if you think they might lose. As of right now, if it wasn't made clear that 2 companies would get selected... then buying the deep OTM calls wouldn't pay off (or barely for that matter), mostly because the premiums are already high. However - NASA made clear that they have an intention of awarding two companies, to diversify vendors and prevent vendor lock in, making the calls still lucrative. Huge insider buying a month or so back also indicated larger odds of winning, further helping the "narrative" that this is a valuable play. **Trying to estimate a PT** The problem with companies such as LUNR is that it's increasingly hard to estimate a PT. One of the possible ways of trying to guess the potential price is to take the contracts that they signed and just add them to the market cap -> recalculating the price (it's not perfect, it's pretty inaccurate, but it gives you some kind of an estimate). If I just assume that the current price already factors in some of the 4.7B contract then with a mkt cap of around 4.7B you get $40 a share. I tend to use this number as "the super-positive estimate", I then take roughly 1/3 of it and declare it as the "the super-pessimistic estimate" .. i.e. $40 / 3 \~= $13.4 Pessimistic estimate set as $40/2 = $20 The middle ground is what I use as the "average, regular estimate" i.e. $30 \----- So, rough estimates: **Super-positive estimate: $40+** **Average estimate: $30** **Pessimistic estimate: \~$20** \----- **Super-pessimistic estimate: $13.4** \----- This kinda makes it clear why I decided to go with $12.5C. Current price - USD 16\~
LUNR dip into the $15.80s got bought up, Bullish
LUNR dip into the $15.80s got bought up, Bullish
LUNR sideways movement at $16, maybe pull back into to $19 next??
LUNR sideways movement at $16, maybe pull back into to $19 next??
Im about to fomo into LUNR so if in doubt, just sell
Im about to fomo into LUNR so if in doubt, just sell
Need LUNR to reach 75 like RKLB. Thanks.
Need LUNR to reach 75 like RKLB. Thanks.
LUNR plowed through its triple top resistance Price discovery inbound 🗿
LUNR plowed through its triple top resistance Price discovery inbound 🗿
The same thing we do everyday Pinky, short LUNR and get buried
The same thing we do everyday Pinky, short LUNR and get buried
RKLB LUNR PL
Just 6x'd on the LUNR mid january $15 calls I bought last month..
Just 6x'd on the LUNR mid january $15 calls I bought last month..
LUNR for sure
LUNR and RKLB going another 20-30% pump this week?!??
LUNR and RKLB going another 20-30% pump this week?!??
LUNR testing $16 hold on
LUNR testing $16 hold on
Asts Rklb LUNR trio absolutely roaring this past few days
Asts Rklb LUNR trio absolutely roaring this past few days
Why did LUNR even pump so hard last week? Should I sell these shares for a quick 40%?
Why did LUNR even pump so hard last week? Should I sell these shares for a quick 40%?
Should I sell my LUNR? up 65% or wait for contract announcement
Should I sell my LUNR? up 65% or wait for contract announcement
I’m convinced LUNR took everyone’s money when they tipped over. Anytime you post about them you just...
I’m convinced LUNR took everyone’s money when they tipped over. Anytime you post about them you just get bots repeating the same jokes lmao Sorry my cost basis isn’t $23 nerds
LUNR LFG
Maybe it’s time LUNR becomes an RKLB/ASTS How incredible that would be
Maybe it’s time LUNR becomes an RKLB/ASTS How incredible that would be
Rapan rocket rail to raunch LUNR calls?
Rapan rocket rail to raunch LUNR calls?
LUNR will be the first of all the new space companies to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2026 after t...
LUNR will be the first of all the new space companies to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2026 after their Lanteris/Maxar acquisition. They're front runners for yet another $4 billion NASA rover contract to be announced any day now. All other space companies are valued in the $10s of billions, some with no revenue at all.
Damn I knew that LUNR pump last night was too good to be true
Damn I knew that LUNR pump last night was too good to be true
Not selling lunr when I was up 20k and then they crash into the moon
Not selling lunr when I was up 20k and then they crash into the moon
LUNR, you better get that contract or I'm sending moldy cookies to the head office.
LUNR, you better get that contract or I'm sending moldy cookies to the head office.
NASA is looking for a company to drop their lander on the moon again. LUNR seems tier 1 for the miss...
NASA is looking for a company to drop their lander on the moon again. LUNR seems tier 1 for the mission set.
The startup space industry could have a head line like "LUNR DISCOVERS SPACE IS UP." and the entire ...
The startup space industry could have a head line like "LUNR DISCOVERS SPACE IS UP." and the entire industry will run 140%, then they'll get a contract, fuck up the landing, and send the entire industry spiraling again with Emo loss posts popping up all over WSB It's actually a lot of fun!
LUNR nasa contract is inc. could be this week
LUNR nasa contract is inc. could be this week
RKLB and LUNR going to gap up another 20% isn’t it? Shouldn’t have sold Friday…
RKLB and LUNR going to gap up another 20% isn’t it? Shouldn’t have sold Friday…
Rklb, lunr, asts. Rdw These are all mooning this week
Rklb, lunr, asts. Rdw These are all mooning this week
nasa gonna notify losers of LTV decision monday morning. should send lunr by tuesday
nasa gonna notify losers of LTV decision monday morning. should send lunr by tuesday
Watch my LUNR and RIVN calls increase in value
Watch my LUNR and RIVN calls increase in value
Idk man lunr just pumped wait for pull back
Idk man lunr just pumped wait for pull back
Look into lunr you're welcome
Look into lunr you're welcome
LUNR
wow, whole space sector still gaining rklb +5.9% rdw +11% asts +5.5% lunr + 3.4% ...
wow, whole space sector still gaining rklb +5.9% rdw +11% asts +5.5% lunr + 3.4% ...
LUNR asts and rklb still ripping
LUNR asts and rklb still ripping
why LUNR pump?
No one said LUNR... It's already up 5% -_-
No one said LUNR... It's already up 5% -_-
Rklb already 10x this year, lunr is way undervalued and about to do the same in 2026
Rklb already 10x this year, lunr is way undervalued and about to do the same in 2026
RKLB or LUNR?
LUNR 20$ EOW